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Post by G on Dec 17, 2009 15:22:43 GMT -5
Maybe this is out there somewhere on what is the expected print runs of these upcoming titles. But I personally haven't seen any and I got to wondering if the Dark Horse Valiant/Gold Key books will be overprinted? You know this has generated more excitement for Dark Horse than anything I can EVER remember and being it was probably the biggest story of 2009, it seems almost all eyes are awaiting what Dark Horse cranks out. But does this have speculation flop writen all over it? Will Jim try and convince the powers that be to "underprint" the books to create demand? Or will Dark Horse know full good and well that they have a cash cow on their hands and do everything in their power to drain every last nickle out of the fanboys? Does this seem ripe for 5-10 variant covers and Retail Variants or will Jim insist they hold off on "gimmicks" to really "win" fans over? I see this going either way really. If under produced, this could create huge demand both immediately and on the back issue market. But if Dark Horse prints until the cows come home, will these eventually be sold at 50 cents each 6 months later? Which side wins out on this?
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Post by starbrand on Dec 17, 2009 16:25:40 GMT -5
My opinion is the Dark Horse print runs will initially be moderate at best. I certainly can't see them being higher than some of the Image books being currently put out. If the quality is as good as early Valiants I expect an increase in value over time of the early issues. Just one fan's opinion.
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Post by defiant1 on Dec 17, 2009 17:37:08 GMT -5
If their initial offering is on FCBD, I think that will make the first issue near worthless. It will be overprinted. I think they are projecting sales for these books based on the order levels that DC got for Legion. That would be 29,000-38,000 if I recall. If they achieve that, it will outsell virtually everything they are publishing regularly. Keep in mind that Buffy is their biggest selling comic and Buffy the TV show has been off the air for years. I think this could likely change the focus of everything Dark Horse is doing because their current crop of titles are not making a lot of money. I expressed a few thoughts with JC Vaughn on the VCS board. For these to succeed, they need to win readers and not just throw them in everyone's lap for free. An over-distributed book will not help their cause to reach readers. It will put the comics in the hands of critics that will spread negative word of mouth publicity. A lot of people receiving it for free will just bag it and put it away for later. They need to "wow" people and make them feel like they missed out if they aren't buying it. I expect an initial surge (after FCBD) of orders approaching 40,000 if not 50,000. I expect a slowdown to around 20,000-25,000. After that, the stories better be impressing people and the marketing had better be productive as opposed to counter-productive. Hard selling (ads, contests, Twitter feeds) doesn't win readers. Soft selling (information, reviews, conversing on messageboards) does tend to make things sell if they are good. Nobody likes to be pressured. That is why two friends sharing info on what they like in the comic shop is often the best marketing they could get. I think you'll know in 6 months whether the numbers are where they need to be or not. If they drop below 6,000 copies, I don't think the 'universe' will survive. A few stray titles may.
Defiant1
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Post by G on Dec 17, 2009 20:37:02 GMT -5
My opinion is the Dark Horse print runs will initially be moderate at best. I certainly can't see them being higher than some of the Image books being currently put out. If the quality is as good as early Valiants I expect an increase in value over time of the early issues. Just one fan's opinion. My feeling is out of the gates, they can set the print run high if they wanted to and get away with it, but only for the 1st couple of releases. Then I expect a moderate meltdown in readership leaving a core group of collectors who would buy it no matter what. I don't think this one can fly under the radar enough to make the value rise over time. If the print runs are low and the comics are well received and even hot, then I think those issues will rise almost immediately. If the print runs are high, there might be an initial attempt to make prices higher, but demand will be instantly met and the values will disappear quickly. A big part of me thinks that making the initial print runs low is the only way to go. If the comics are well received, there will be demand that can't be met and the book just becomes hotter in part because more people want a book they can't easily get. If the comics are lukewarm in reception, it'll instantly set the bar on the print run and they'll have to work on improving their product quickly before it's too late. Too late could be 3 or 4 issues if they don't suddenly win people over. I just don't see this sneaking up on anybody in terms of value. It'll either be a hot back issue immediately or it will be considered an immediate dud and be found in dumpsters within 6 months. Nothing they can do can recreate the original sneaky value climb the originals generated. Most people didn't know they even existed until 5 and 6 issues had already been out. Those in the know that they were creating a buzz swamped them up, while those who didn't found out too late and instantly a speculating star was born. These will be some of the most instantly judged comics to hit the market right from the start. They have to come out swinging in my opinion and outdo perhaps toned down (from original Valiant) expectations. If expectations are met or exceeded, they could snowball quick. Otherwise if not, the comics will become the next Zoom Suit as massive dumping takes place over the disappointing reality of high expectations.
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Post by G on Dec 17, 2009 20:51:55 GMT -5
If their initial offering is on FCBD, I think that will make the first issue near worthless. It will be overprinted. I think they are projecting sales for these books based on the order levels that DC got for Legion. That would be 29,000-38,000 if I recall. If they achieve that, it will outsell virtually everything they are publishing regularly. Keep in mind that Buffy is their biggest selling comic and Buffy the TV show has been off the air for years. I think this could likely change the focus of everything Dark Horse is doing because their current crop of titles are not making a lot of money. Wouldn't that be a win though if the 1st peek you get at it is free? They must have faith that they've got a kick ass FCBD comic to put out there if they want to launch with a free comic. In some way, it reminds me of the Previews Warrior's of Plasm insert by Defiant. Although I don't think Defiant took off the way they had hoped and it practically crippled the interest in the Plasm binder because the comic was given away free. It no doubt was a good enjoyable tease inducing issue. I was never disappoint with Plasm #0. It just seems what came afterwords didn't exactly blow people away. But I'm a bit impressed Dark Horse is launching with a free comic. That seems kinda ballsy to me. One that could backfire. But makes me believe its gonna be worth looking at to test the hype meter nonetheless. I expressed a few thoughts with JC Vaughn on the VCS board. For these to succeed, they need to win readers and not just throw them in everyone's lap for free. An over-distributed book will not help their cause to reach readers. It will put the comics in the hands of critics that will spread negative word of mouth publicity. A lot of people receiving it for free will just bag it and put it away for later. They need to "wow" people and make them feel like they missed out if they aren't buying it. I certainly agree they cannot CONTINUE to drop free comics on the public. But if they've got a gem of a story and art to get the ball rolling, I think that 1st and only free comic can blow people away and make them ready to open their wallets in anticipation of what's to come. I expect an initial surge (after FCBD) of orders approaching 40,000 if not 50,000. I expect a slowdown to around 20,000-25,000. After that, the stories better be impressing people and the marketing had better be productive as opposed to counter-productive. Hard selling (ads, contests, Twitter feeds) doesn't win readers. Soft selling (information, reviews, conversing on messageboards) does tend to make things sell if they are good. Nobody likes to be pressured. That is why two friends sharing info on what they like in the comic shop is often the best marketing they could get. I think you'll know in 6 months whether the numbers are where they need to be or not. If they drop below 6,000 copies, I don't think the 'universe' will survive. A few stray titles may. Defiant1 I guess I wonder if 20 - 25,000 enough to call it a success? Is 50,000 - 100,000 print runs out of the question? Certainly 100,000 would saturate the market, but is it possible to do if they came out of the gates hot? Is 25,000 enough to be called a success? Certainly 6,000 would be the kiss of death. But is anybody going to be blown away by numbers in the 20's? That seems like one letdown away from 6,000 - 10,000 per issue. What kind of numbers will Dark Horse need to maintain for this to be a long running and successful series of comics?
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Post by defiant1 on Dec 18, 2009 11:45:40 GMT -5
With the exception of the top titles, there are not enough retail outlets left for the market to consistently order and sell 100,000 copies. Getting more copies out there in theory is good. In practice it backfires. Printing a million Turok comics didn't make it a desirable book. Sales dropped very quickly and being in quarter boxes today still doesn't entice readers. Selling works best when people feel as though either the book will go up in price or if they don't get it now they will miss their opportunity. Making a book too common makes people think "I can wait". If they wait, they've already made a decision not to get it. Some stores however don't let you have one of everything. Some stores make you pick just one free book.
Defiant1
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Post by G on Dec 20, 2009 9:56:50 GMT -5
I wouldn't suggest that it takes 100,000 copies to be a success in these days. I'm not sure how many titles achieve that in these days, but those kind of numbers seem reserved for the Amazing Spiderman's and X-Men's of this world. It never seems like many comics hit that number anymore and years ago, it was hit very often.
I'm just wondering where is the break even or better yet, profitable number for survivability for Dark Horse? Will 20,000 copies a month cut it these days? If 6,000 is doom, what is soldier on?
As far as FCBD, its good to know your sources on that day. I know a store who won't do FCBD because it isn't free for him. So "no soup for you" over there. I know another store that just about makes you fall over them when you walk in the door and tells everyone "Take one of everything you see on the table if you like". If I remember, I'll be heading to him this time and my wife will get a copy of everything too.
What day is FCBD in 2010? I want to plan ahead.
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Post by starbrand on Dec 20, 2009 12:06:51 GMT -5
FCBD is May 1st 2010.
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Post by defiant1 on Dec 20, 2009 15:08:30 GMT -5
I wouldn't suggest that it takes 100,000 copies to be a success in these days. I'm not sure how many titles achieve that in these days, but those kind of numbers seem reserved for the Amazing Spiderman's and X-Men's of this world. It never seems like many comics hit that number anymore and years ago, it was hit very often. I'm just wondering where is the break even or better yet, profitable number for survivability for Dark Horse? Will 20,000 copies a month cut it these days? If 6,000 is doom, what is soldier on? As far as FCBD, its good to know your sources on that day. I know a store who won't do FCBD because it isn't free for him. So "no soup for you" over there. I know another store that just about makes you fall over them when you walk in the door and tells everyone "Take one of everything you see on the table if you like". If I remember, I'll be heading to him this time and my wife will get a copy of everything too. What day is FCBD in 2010? I want to plan ahead. I think printing setup is cheaper now than it was in the 90's before computerized color separation. 20,000 copies was too low for most publishers to make money in the early 90's. Since comics are being published regularly in numbers below 10,000, I'd say either it's cheaper or a lot of people are losing money. My guess is both, but prices are higher now. Either way, nobody is getting rich. Defiant1
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Post by G on Dec 20, 2009 21:17:47 GMT -5
Well considering Dark Horse is one of the few major comic publishers remaining, it would seem they would be running with more than a rag tag effort of just trying to get by. I wonder at what points are they happy and at what points are they disappointed and ready to throw in the towel.
I'm apt to think the initial issues will fly off the shelves and be an instant sell-out regardless of print run unless we start approaching the 75 - 100,000 range. At least for the 1st issues. Just like anything else, I would expect a dramatic drop off. If Buffy is their #1 comic, I would personally expect numbers at or just below that on normal issues. Maybe rivaling or even overtaking the #1 spot in Dark Horse's lineup. I think the first couple of months will bring good numbers for Dark Horse. But after around 3 or 4 issues, the books are going to have to be surviving on their own merits and no longer on Valiant nostalgia and wishful thinking.
I kinda feel like 20,000 a month would be disappointing after the initial releases wear off. But realistically they'll probably struggle to do that or say 30,000 a month once the title is out of the box and coming out with issues like number 4's and number 5's.
I just don't see this sneaking by anybody unnoticed. It's success with rave reviews or failure with underwhelming reader response will be noted right away. If it comes out of the woodwork say underwhelming, would we be lucky to see as many issues as say Defiant?
Is this a long term plan with Dark Horse? Where would we call this a success?
As many issues as Broadway?
As many issues as Defiant?
As many as Valiant Volume 2?
As many issues as Valiant Volume 1?
In my 31 years of collecting, I can't recall such anticipation for a launch of new books. The rest just launched with little or no fanfare. They were discovered once they were released and not so much anticipated before they came out.
Its almost a double edged sword here. On one hand, there is such a watch on this, that it could propel them to great heights very quickly if it is well received. The monthly hype meter could be pegged and the sky could be the limit if Shooter and company find the magic one last time.
On the other hand if the books turn out to be disappointing, we all could be on Shooter watch waiting for the end to be proclaimed almost right away. How hard would it be to come back from a mediocre launch? You'll never have so many impatiently waiting ever again. They're probably only going to get one good shot at this and if it isn't a hit right out of the gates, will it ever be?
It has a historic feeling to it one way or another. Almost more than I'm interested in the books themselves, I'm almost as much interested on it's mark in comic's history. Whatever that may be.
If this fails, I just wonder what could possibly happen in the future to get excited about before it comes out?
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